Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

C

CubeSmart (CUBE)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 results were in line with expectations: total revenues rose 5.2% year over year to $285.1M while diluted EPS fell to $0.36; FFO, as adjusted, per diluted share was $0.65 .
  • Revenue beat S&P Global consensus by ~$2.1M*, but EPS missed by roughly $0.02* as higher interest expense and D&A offset top-line growth .
  • Management raised 2025 midpoints for FFO/share and same-store metrics; same-store revenue/NOI midpoints improved and expense growth midpoint declined versus Q2 guidance .
  • First positive year-over-year move-in rates since Q1 2022 and diminishing new supply support a “slow, steady stabilization”; management sees positive same-store revenue more likely in the back half of 2026, barring a demand catalyst .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Stabilization took hold: Q3 saw the first Y/Y positive move-in rates since Q1 2022, with +2.5% in the quarter; management cited diminishing new supply and more constructive pricing in peak season (“slow, steady stabilization”) .
  • Expense control: Same-store expenses grew just 0.3% Y/Y; utilities and property insurance ran favorable after the May renewal .
  • Guidance raised: Midpoints for FFO/share and same-store revenue/NOI were increased versus Q2; EPS and FFO ranges nudged higher at the low end .

What Went Wrong

  • Same-store softness persists: Same-store NOI fell 1.5% Y/Y on a 1.0% revenue decline and 0.3% expense increase; average occupancy slipped to 89.9% and end occupancy to 89.0% .
  • EPS pressure: Diluted EPS declined Y/Y to $0.36, driven by higher interest expense (+$6.6M Y/Y to $29.4M) and higher depreciation/amortization .
  • Sun Belt drag: Markets like Atlanta, Phoenix, and parts of Texas remain pressured as deliveries continue; contrast with stronger performance in NYC, DC, and Chicago .

Financial Results

Consolidated Results and Same-Store KPIs

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Revenues ($M)$273.0 $282.3 $285.1
Diluted EPS ($)$0.39 $0.36 $0.36
FFO, as adjusted, per diluted share ($)$0.64 $0.65 $0.65
Same-Store NOI Growth (Y/Y, %)(0.8%) (1.1%) (1.5%)
Same-Store Avg Occupancy (%)89.5% 90.6% 89.9%
Same-Store Gross Margin (%)71.5% 70.4% 70.2%

Notes:

  • Q3 revenues up $14.2M Y/Y; interest expense up $6.6M Y/Y; D&A higher Y/Y .
  • Same-store realized annual rent per occupied square foot was $22.99 (flat Y/Y) in Q3; end occupancy 89.0% vs 90.2% last year .

Estimate Comparison (S&P Global consensus)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue – Consensus ($M)266.7*275.5*283.7*
Revenue – Actual ($M)273.4 282.9 285.7
Rev Beat/(Miss)+6.7*+7.3*+2.1*
EPS – Consensus ($)0.382*0.379*0.381*
EPS – Actual ($)0.39 0.36 0.36
EPS Beat/(Miss)+0.01*(0.02)*(0.02)*

Values marked with * are from S&P Global consensus; Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Drivers of revenue beat/EPS miss in Q3: higher interest expense from greater average debt and rates; higher D&A; expense control partly offset .

Additional KPIs and Portfolio

  • Third-party managed stores: 863 at 9/30/25; +46 in Q3; 56.6M rentable sf .
  • Consolidated portfolio: 660 stores; 48.2M rentable sf; physical occupancy 88.6% at quarter end .
  • Net debt/EBITDA: 4.7x at quarter end (CFO) .
  • Financing: Issued $450M 10-year senior unsecured notes at 5.125% coupon (5.295% YTM) on Aug 20; proceeds repaid revolver and for general purposes .
  • Dividend: $0.52 per share declared July 29; paid Oct 15 .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q2 PR, 7/31/25)Current Guidance (Q3 PR, 10/30/25)Change
Same-store revenue growthFY 2025(1.25%) to (0.25%) (1.00%) to (0.25%) Raised midpoint
Same-store expense growthFY 20251.50% to 3.00% 1.00% to 2.00% Lowered midpoint
Same-store NOI growthFY 2025(2.75%) to (1.25%) Sop (1.75%) to (0.75%) Raised midpoint
Diluted EPSFY 2025$1.44 to $1.50 $1.46 to $1.50 Raised low end
FFO, as adjusted, per diluted shareFY 2025$2.54 to $2.60 $2.56 to $2.60 Raised low end
Property mgmt fee incomeFY 2025$41.0M to $42.0M $40.0M to $41.0M Lowered
G&A expenseFY 2025$63.0M to $64.0M $64.0M to $65.0M Higher
Interest & loan amort expFY 2025$118.0M to $122.0M $118.0M to $122.0M Maintained
Acquisition of consolidated operating propertiesFY 2025$452.8M $518.1M Raised
Weighted avg shares & unitsFY 2025230.5M 230.5M Maintained
Dividend (quarterly)Q4 2025$0.52 (declared 7/29) $0.52 (latest declared) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Supply/demand stabilizationQ1: “positive start… improving occupancy and rate trends” ; Q2: “fundamentals have continued to stabilize” First Y/Y positive move-in rates since Q1’22; pipeline shrinking; stabilization continuing Improving, gradual
Pricing & promotionsPress releases emphasized better seasonal pricing in Q2 Move-in rates +2.5% in Q3; October ~1.9%; no change in promotions; gross=net Stabilizing pricing power
Geographic dispersionNoted high-quality/top-tier focus Strength in NYC/DC/Chicago; Sun Belt (Atlanta/Phoenix/Charlotte/parts of Texas) lag due to supply and demand mix Mixed by market
External growthQ2: no acquisitions closed; JV development ongoing 3 stores under contract for Q4; JV development opened Port Chester; New Rochelle opening in Q4 Slight pickup
Leverage/financingQ2: no ATM usage; credit facility drawn $450M 2035 notes at 5.125%; net debt/EBITDA 4.7x; 2025 notes to roll to revolver then term out Proactive terming-out
Technology/AINot highlighted in Q1/Q2 pressLLM leads <1%; not a material demand channel today Minimal impact

Management Commentary

  • “It was a very solid third quarter for CubeSmart, which resulted in guidance increases across our key, same-store, and earnings metrics… the year has played out a bit better than we expected… lessening impact of new supply… constructive pricing… continued health of the consumer.” (CEO)
  • “For the quarter, we performed in line with our expectations, reporting FFO per share as adjusted of $0.65… same-store revenues declined 1%… expenses grew just 0.3%... favorable in utilities and property insurance.” (CFO)
  • “This was the first quarter since Q1 2022 where move-in rates… were positive year over year… we should be on improved footing heading into 2026.” (CEO)
  • “Our guidance implies negative revenue growth in Q4, although acceleration from Q3 at the midpoint… we’re seeing encouraging signs.” (CFO)

Q&A Highlights

  • Rate vs occupancy: Systems focus on maximizing revenue by market; strong urban markets (NYC, DC, Chicago) getting both rate and occupancy; Sun Belt markets still seeking balance .
  • Promotions unchanged: The +2.5% move-in rate was both gross and net; October move-in rate ~1.9% .
  • Timing of positive same-store revenue: With 4–5% monthly churn, revenue inflects slowly; conservatively expecting back half of 2026 without a demand catalyst .
  • Acquisitions/cap rates: 3 stores under contract for Q4; going-in yields low-5s, stabilizing near ~6% in years 2–3 (mixed bag of stabilization profiles) .
  • Supply outlook: Deliveries moderating overall but still present in certain Sun Belt markets; developers/lenders dynamics likely constrain new supply into at least 1H27 .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 revenue beat and EPS miss vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $285.7M vs $283.7M*; EPS $0.36 vs $0.381*; revenue outperformance but EPS headwind from higher interest expense and D&A .
  • Sequentially, revenue exceeded consensus in Q1 and Q2 as well, while EPS was inline to below in Q2 and above in Q1* .
  • With raised FY midpoints for FFO/share and same-store metrics, Street models may modestly lift FY FFO/share and lower property management fee income and slightly higher G&A to reflect updated ranges .

Values marked with * are from S&P Global consensus; Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Stabilization is real but gradual: first Y/Y positive move-in rates since Q1’22 and shrinking supply pipeline support a slow recovery path .
  • Quality/urban skew is paying off: NYC/DC/Chicago remain “rock stars,” offsetting Sun Belt softness; portfolio quality aiding pricing power .
  • Top line vs bottom line divergence: Revenue beats are not fully flowing to EPS given higher interest and D&A; monitor financing and depreciation trajectory .
  • Guidance bias now slightly upward: Raised midpoints for FFO/share and same-store metrics; expense growth midpoint lowered—better operating leverage as recovery progresses .
  • Balance sheet positioned: $450M notes termed out maturities; net debt/EBITDA 4.7x; flexible to address 2025 notes via revolver then bond market .
  • Watch Q4 cadence: Management implies negative Q4 same-store revenue at midpoint but sequential acceleration vs Q3; early 2026 setup improving if stabilization persists .
  • Market catalysts: A housing/mobility uptick could pull-forward revenue inflection; absent that, back half of 2026 for positive same-store revenue is the base case .

Appendix: Select Q3 Figures

  • Revenues $285.1M; EPS $0.36; FFO/sh (adj) $0.65 .
  • Same-store NOI (Y/Y) (1.5%); Avg OCC 89.9%; End OCC 89.0% .
  • Interest expense $29.4M (+$6.6M Y/Y); weighted avg effective interest rate 3.32% .
  • 2025 EPS guidance $1.46–$1.50; FFO/sh (adj) $2.56–$2.60 .