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CubeSmart (CUBE)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 results were in line with expectations: total revenues rose 5.2% year over year to $285.1M while diluted EPS fell to $0.36; FFO, as adjusted, per diluted share was $0.65 .
- Revenue beat S&P Global consensus by ~$2.1M*, but EPS missed by roughly $0.02* as higher interest expense and D&A offset top-line growth .
- Management raised 2025 midpoints for FFO/share and same-store metrics; same-store revenue/NOI midpoints improved and expense growth midpoint declined versus Q2 guidance .
- First positive year-over-year move-in rates since Q1 2022 and diminishing new supply support a “slow, steady stabilization”; management sees positive same-store revenue more likely in the back half of 2026, barring a demand catalyst .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Stabilization took hold: Q3 saw the first Y/Y positive move-in rates since Q1 2022, with +2.5% in the quarter; management cited diminishing new supply and more constructive pricing in peak season (“slow, steady stabilization”) .
- Expense control: Same-store expenses grew just 0.3% Y/Y; utilities and property insurance ran favorable after the May renewal .
- Guidance raised: Midpoints for FFO/share and same-store revenue/NOI were increased versus Q2; EPS and FFO ranges nudged higher at the low end .
What Went Wrong
- Same-store softness persists: Same-store NOI fell 1.5% Y/Y on a 1.0% revenue decline and 0.3% expense increase; average occupancy slipped to 89.9% and end occupancy to 89.0% .
- EPS pressure: Diluted EPS declined Y/Y to $0.36, driven by higher interest expense (+$6.6M Y/Y to $29.4M) and higher depreciation/amortization .
- Sun Belt drag: Markets like Atlanta, Phoenix, and parts of Texas remain pressured as deliveries continue; contrast with stronger performance in NYC, DC, and Chicago .
Financial Results
Consolidated Results and Same-Store KPIs
Notes:
- Q3 revenues up $14.2M Y/Y; interest expense up $6.6M Y/Y; D&A higher Y/Y .
- Same-store realized annual rent per occupied square foot was $22.99 (flat Y/Y) in Q3; end occupancy 89.0% vs 90.2% last year .
Estimate Comparison (S&P Global consensus)
Values marked with * are from S&P Global consensus; Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Drivers of revenue beat/EPS miss in Q3: higher interest expense from greater average debt and rates; higher D&A; expense control partly offset .
Additional KPIs and Portfolio
- Third-party managed stores: 863 at 9/30/25; +46 in Q3; 56.6M rentable sf .
- Consolidated portfolio: 660 stores; 48.2M rentable sf; physical occupancy 88.6% at quarter end .
- Net debt/EBITDA: 4.7x at quarter end (CFO) .
- Financing: Issued $450M 10-year senior unsecured notes at 5.125% coupon (5.295% YTM) on Aug 20; proceeds repaid revolver and for general purposes .
- Dividend: $0.52 per share declared July 29; paid Oct 15 .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “It was a very solid third quarter for CubeSmart, which resulted in guidance increases across our key, same-store, and earnings metrics… the year has played out a bit better than we expected… lessening impact of new supply… constructive pricing… continued health of the consumer.” (CEO)
- “For the quarter, we performed in line with our expectations, reporting FFO per share as adjusted of $0.65… same-store revenues declined 1%… expenses grew just 0.3%... favorable in utilities and property insurance.” (CFO)
- “This was the first quarter since Q1 2022 where move-in rates… were positive year over year… we should be on improved footing heading into 2026.” (CEO)
- “Our guidance implies negative revenue growth in Q4, although acceleration from Q3 at the midpoint… we’re seeing encouraging signs.” (CFO)
Q&A Highlights
- Rate vs occupancy: Systems focus on maximizing revenue by market; strong urban markets (NYC, DC, Chicago) getting both rate and occupancy; Sun Belt markets still seeking balance .
- Promotions unchanged: The +2.5% move-in rate was both gross and net; October move-in rate ~1.9% .
- Timing of positive same-store revenue: With 4–5% monthly churn, revenue inflects slowly; conservatively expecting back half of 2026 without a demand catalyst .
- Acquisitions/cap rates: 3 stores under contract for Q4; going-in yields low-5s, stabilizing near ~6% in years 2–3 (mixed bag of stabilization profiles) .
- Supply outlook: Deliveries moderating overall but still present in certain Sun Belt markets; developers/lenders dynamics likely constrain new supply into at least 1H27 .
Estimates Context
- Q3 revenue beat and EPS miss vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $285.7M vs $283.7M*; EPS $0.36 vs $0.381*; revenue outperformance but EPS headwind from higher interest expense and D&A .
- Sequentially, revenue exceeded consensus in Q1 and Q2 as well, while EPS was inline to below in Q2 and above in Q1* .
- With raised FY midpoints for FFO/share and same-store metrics, Street models may modestly lift FY FFO/share and lower property management fee income and slightly higher G&A to reflect updated ranges .
Values marked with * are from S&P Global consensus; Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Stabilization is real but gradual: first Y/Y positive move-in rates since Q1’22 and shrinking supply pipeline support a slow recovery path .
- Quality/urban skew is paying off: NYC/DC/Chicago remain “rock stars,” offsetting Sun Belt softness; portfolio quality aiding pricing power .
- Top line vs bottom line divergence: Revenue beats are not fully flowing to EPS given higher interest and D&A; monitor financing and depreciation trajectory .
- Guidance bias now slightly upward: Raised midpoints for FFO/share and same-store metrics; expense growth midpoint lowered—better operating leverage as recovery progresses .
- Balance sheet positioned: $450M notes termed out maturities; net debt/EBITDA 4.7x; flexible to address 2025 notes via revolver then bond market .
- Watch Q4 cadence: Management implies negative Q4 same-store revenue at midpoint but sequential acceleration vs Q3; early 2026 setup improving if stabilization persists .
- Market catalysts: A housing/mobility uptick could pull-forward revenue inflection; absent that, back half of 2026 for positive same-store revenue is the base case .
Appendix: Select Q3 Figures
- Revenues $285.1M; EPS $0.36; FFO/sh (adj) $0.65 .
- Same-store NOI (Y/Y) (1.5%); Avg OCC 89.9%; End OCC 89.0% .
- Interest expense $29.4M (+$6.6M Y/Y); weighted avg effective interest rate 3.32% .
- 2025 EPS guidance $1.46–$1.50; FFO/sh (adj) $2.56–$2.60 .